Incidence of Dengue Disease Rate Based on Spatial Analysis in Metro City
Abstract
Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) remains a public health problem in Metro City, Lampung Province. This study aimed to describe the village-level distribution of DHF incidence in Metro City during January–April 2024 and to determine whether DHF cases exhibited a clustered pattern using Average Nearest Neighbor (ANN) analysis. This quantitative study used two data sources: (1) secondary surveillance data from the Metro City Health Office for 2018–2022, used only to describe the historical trend of DHF; and (2) primary data on the residential coordinates of all DHF cases reported from January to April 2024 (n = 248), collected using GPS, which served as the main dataset for spatial analysis. Village-level incidence rates were mapped, and the spatial pattern of cases was assessed using Average Nearest Neighbor (ANN) analysis. Historical surveillance data showed fluctuating case numbers, peaking at 192 cases in 2019 and declining to 88 cases in 2022 (IR 51.40 per 100,000 population), with no DHF deaths recorded (CFR 0%; 0 deaths/88 cases). Among the 248 cases in January–April 2024, most occurred in the 6–59-year age group (83.1%), and 54.8% were female. The highest village-level IRs were found in Sumbersari Bantul, Margorejo, Tejoagung, Yosomulyo, Karang Rejo, and Purwosari. ANN analysis showed a statistically significant clustered pattern (NNR = 0.013; p < 0.01), indicating that cases were not randomly distributed. This clustered pattern warrants further investigation into environmental, behavioral, and health service–related factors that may contribute to the concentration of cases. These findings can support location-based prioritization of DHF prevention and control in Metro City.
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